Nigeria’s oil export gains 30
kbd in November
SOPURUCHI ONWUKA
Nigeria’s crude oil export volumes in the month of November rose to 1.98
million barrels per day just as revenue outlook from the country’s petroleum
resources looks gloomier with the free fall of oil prices.
The November export figure indicated increase by 30, 000 barrels per day
(30 kbd) on the 1.95 million barrels per day (mbd) pumped by the country in
October but some 40 kbd short of the 2.02 mbd pushed to the market in
September.
Before September, the country had maintained as export plateau of 1.96
mbd in July and August, according to a table of output figures on members of the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
However, Nigeria’s marginal export surplus failed to yield any
significant impact in the overall oil output from OPEC members to the market as
the group’s total further plunged by 290 kbd from 30.30 mbd in October to 30.01
in November.
Apart from Nigeria, other countries that recorded export jumps include
Ecuador whose export increased in the month by 10 kbd from 0.54 kbd in October
to 0.55 kbd in November. Iraq also posted a 50 kbd from 3.06 mbd in October to
3.11 mbd in November.
Iran maintained October export level in November, posting 2.83 mbd in
both months just the same as United Arab Emirates also posted 2.78 mbd for both
months. Venezuela followed the plateau trend with 2.32 mbd for October and
November respectively.
The other six members of the group recorded drops in export figures with
Libya suffering the biggest loss with 210 kbd from 0.86 kbd in October to 0.65
kbd in Novermber. Angola dipped by 50 kbd from 1.69 mbd in October to 1.64 mbd
in November.
Kuwait also lost 50 kbd in November to post 2.75 mbd, lowering export
from 2.80 mbd in October, Qatar dipped by 30 kbd from 0.71 kbd in October to
0.68 kbd in November.
Saudi Arabia posted a 30 kbd decline from 9.63 mbd in October to 9.60 mbd
in November. And Algeria dipped by 10 kbd 1.13 mbd in October to 1.12 mbd in
November.
Analysts attribute Nigeria’s export improvement to reduced production
losses that came with the commissioning of the Umugini pipeline by cluster operators
in the Western Niger Delta which enhanced production by a group of indigenous
players.
Seplat
Petroleum has recorded less than 0.6% of oil theft on the 35 kilometre Amukpe
to Rapele pipeline after it switched from Shell operated export conduit on
which the operator complains of incessant attacks.
It was the vandalism of the Rapele-Forcados
section of the line that forced entire shutdown of Seplat’s production in the
first 43 days of 2014. Seplat currently produces 73,000BOPD (gross).
Other
Nigerian independents with adjoining pipelines to those operated by major
companies have comparable experience with that of Seplat. “We have produced,
non-stop from the Ogbele field for nine years since October 2005”, says Layi
Fatona, managing director of Niger Delta Petroleum Resources (NDPR).
“We have
never had a single day of shut in,” he explained.
Platform
Petroleum, Midwestern Oil and Gas, Pillar Oil and Energia have also
collectively streamed the common access Umugini pipeline to avert production
losses and accounting diputes with Agip whose pipeline the group had used.
ENI is
accused of throwing up stories of vandalism on its own pipeline to the extent
that it calculates at least 15% losses, almost every month, for all the
companies which put crude into the pipeline.
The
production and export upsides in Nigeria positively coincided with news that cracking
margins for West African crudes have risen on the US Atlantic Coast relative to
the Bakken margin this month, widening the WAF-USAC arbitrage.
The USAC cracking margin for Nigerian Bonny Light crude has
averaged $10.42/b so far in December, a $5.77/b premium to the margin for
Bakken crude railed from North Dakota. In November, the Bonny Light cracking
margin averaged $10.26/b, a $1.67/b premium to Bakken.
Margin data compiled by Platts reflects the difference
between a crude's netback and its spot price. Netbacks are based on crude
yields, which are calculated by applying Platts product price assessments to
yield formulas designed by Turner, Mason & Co.
While there has not yet been a rush to send West African
cargoes to the US, the wider arbitrage appears to have lured a few more barrels
into the USAC.
Platts cFlow ship tracking software shows a slight increase
in vessels arriving in the USAC from West Africa in December. Five ships are
due to arrive, up from three in November and two in October.
The Value arrived on December 1, from the Brass River
terminal in Nigeria, and the Eagle Atlanta arrived on December 4, bringing
crude from the Congo.
Three more ships are due to arrive in Philadelphia by
December 17. The Toska is due on December 12, from the Escravos terminal in
Nigeria, the Value on December 14, again from Brass River, and the Genmar
Harriet on December 17 from the Kome Kribi terminal in Cameroon, from which oil
from Chad is exported.
US refiners have cut their reliance on imported crudes in
recent years, especially light sweet grades from West Africa and the North Sea,
as North American production has soared. Still, refiners will sometimes
increase imports when the price is right.
Demand for West African crudes remains weak, pushing spot
price differentials lower. Bonny Light, for instance, was assessed at a 65
cents/b premium to Dated Brent Thursday, down from a $1.25/b premium November
3.
More than two-thirds of the January Nigerian crude loading
program has yet to clear, market sources said, and even though the Angolan
program is trading, deals are fetching lower price differentials. Fewer than 10
cargoes of Angolan crude remain available from the January program, although
most of those are heavier grades, such as Pazflor and Saturno.
"From the January Angola program, you'll find that
China has bought a lot of those cargoes. Roughly 10-12 cargoes went through term,
another 30 cargoes are likely to go to Asia and so far the remaining 10 have
gone to western buyers. Of that, very, very little is likely to make its way to
the US, though some of it is difficult to see a destination on until you see
the shipping data," said one trader earlier this week.
West African sellers are also finding steeper competition in
Asian markets from Middle Eastern suppliers. Notably, Saudi Arabia has been
aggressively lowering prices for its crude into Asia in order to hold onto
market share. As a result, current Singapore margins now favor Saudi barrels.
The Singapore Arab Light cracking margin has averaged
$3.22/b so far in December, a $1.83/b premium to the Cabinda margin, for
instance. That was up from a discount of $1.28/b to the Cabinda margin in
September.
As the US has backed out West African imports, prices for
those crudes have fallen, bolstering margins in Europe and Asia.